When Can You Retire Based on the 4% Rule
Results
Visualization
How It Works
The independence number applies the 4% rule: you can withdraw 4% of a portfolio annually, so the target is 25 times your yearly spending (or 100 divided by the withdrawal rate). Each year we add your annual contributions and grow the balance by the return, checking when it first reaches the target. The chart plots your projected portfolio against the flat target line, and the crossover is your independence year. Lower spending shrinks the target; higher returns and contributions reach it sooner.
What Should You Do?
The two biggest levers are spending and savings rate, not investment return. Cutting annual expenses by a few thousand shrinks the target directly and frees cash to invest. Keep the withdrawal rate conservative; 4% is a common planning baseline, not a guarantee against long downturns. As the crossover nears, shift toward safer assets to protect the portfolio. Re-run whenever income, spending, or return assumptions change.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 4% rule?
It suggests a portfolio can support 4% annual withdrawals for about 30 years, so the target is 25 times yearly spending.
Is the independence number guaranteed?
No. It is a planning heuristic; poor market sequences can require a lower withdrawal rate.
How do I reach it sooner?
Spend less to shrink the target, or save and invest more to grow the portfolio faster.
What if the return is low?
A lower return pushes the crossover later; the simulator shows the new date as you adjust the slider.
Does this include Social Security?
No. If you expect other income, lower your annual expenses by that amount before entering.